[gatortalk] Re: [gatornews] Wall Street Journal: Hoops Nerd picks the Florida Gators

Fun to play with Kenpom.

Notice the luck factor for UF (-.106).

That is almost the worst in the country; 337th worst out of 347 teams.

With some normal breaks, we'd be the dominant team in the country right now.

-Zeb

On Mar 20, 2013, at 9:55 AM, Helen Huntley wrote:

he best way to profit off your NCAA tournament bracket is not, in fact, picking a bunch of round-of-64 upsets and then buying a round at the bar when one just so happens to hit. It's to nail the national champion.

The unexpected darling of tempo-free statisticians this year is Florida, the No. 3 seed in the South Region. A formula published on kenpom.com, the closest thing to a Bible for hoops nerds, gives the Gators a 21% chance of winning the tournament, the best of any team. (We should mention that basic arithmetic implies that Florida would lose 79% of the time, too.) Also going with the Gators is John Ezekowitz, the Harvard senior whose round-of-64 upsets were published Tuesday. His system for forecasting the entire bracket uses survival analysis, a method for predicting failure in systems, and gives Florida a 15.7% chance of winning the whole thing, also the best of any team.

In WSJ's Blindfold Bracket competition, which allows users to select teams without knowing their true identities, 40% of participants have ended up with Indiana as the national champion. But the unbiased approach also likes Florida, the second-most popular pick at 12%.

—Ben Cohen
--

Helen Huntley

(727) 823-3801

www.helenhuntley.com

--
--
GATORS: ONE VOICE ON SATURDAY - NO VOICE ON SUNDAY!
1996 National Football Champions | 2006 National Basketball Champions
2006 National Football Champions | 2007 National Basketball Champions
2008 National Football Champions |
Three Heisman Trophy winners: Steve Spurrier (1966), Danny Wuerffel (1996),
Tim Tebow (2007) - Visit our website at www.gatornet.us
---
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "GatorNews" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to gatornews+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com.
For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.