[gatortalk] Fwd: [gatornews] Wall Street Journal: Hoops Nerd picks the Florida Gators

Subject: Re: [gatornews] Wall Street Journal: Hoops Nerd picks the Florida Gators

I agree with Pat Dooley who said UF could suffer an early exit or will go all the way. I guess that goes along with the 21% chance kenpom.com is giving us. 

So, if we beat NW Louisiana...  All the way, Baby!

Oliver Barry, CRS, GRI

Real Estate Broker

Bob Parks, LLC

1517 Hunt Club Blvd

Gallatin TN 37066

615-972-4239

615-826-4040 

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On Mar 20, 2013, at 8:55 AM, Helen Huntley <hhsgator@gmail.com> wrote:

he best way to profit off your NCAA tournament bracket is not, in fact, picking a bunch of round-of-64 upsets and then buying a round at the bar when one just so happens to hit. It's to nail the national champion.

The unexpected darling of tempo-free statisticians this year is Florida, the No. 3 seed in the South Region. A formula published on kenpom.com, the closest thing to a Bible for hoops nerds, gives the Gators a 21% chance of winning the tournament, the best of any team. (We should mention that basic arithmetic implies that Florida would lose 79% of the time, too.) Also going with the Gators is John Ezekowitz, the Harvard senior whose round-of-64 upsets were published Tuesday. His system for forecasting the entire bracket uses survival analysis, a method for predicting failure in systems, and gives Florida a 15.7% chance of winning the whole thing, also the best of any team.

In WSJ's Blindfold Bracket competition, which allows users to select teams without knowing their true identities, 40% of participants have ended up with Indiana as the national champion. But the unbiased approach also likes Florida, the second-most popular pick at 12%.

—Ben Cohen
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Helen Huntley

(727) 823-3801

www.helenhuntley.com

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