• Sharon Katz

Each week throughout the season, the Playoff Predictor will use ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) and human logic (i.e., the eye test) to determine which teams are still alive in the chase for the College Football Playoff. Unlike the weekly College Football Playoff rankings, which look at a team's body of work through that point in the season, the Playoff Predictor is intended to project which teams will be there when it matters -- when the final rankings are announced.

The Playoff Predictor will factor in a team's chance to win its conference and finish with fewer than two losses, as well as schedule strength.

Front four

1. Clemson Tigers

Last Week: 1

FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 88 percent

FPI's chance of winning the conference: 59 percent

Clemson proved why it was the top team in last week's Playoff Predictor with a decisive 56-41 win against NC State. The Tigers appear to be improving each week, and they now have the best chance of any Power 5 team to win their conference (59 percent chance) and enter the bowl season undefeated (43 percent chance), according to FPI. Clemson likely will need to beat Florida State in Death Valley on Saturday to win the ACC Atlantic division. If Clemson can get by the Seminoles (73 percent likely), FPI projects that the Tigers have at least a 70 percent chance to win in each of their remaining pre-bowl games, including the ACC Championship Game.

2. Ohio State Buckeyes

Last Week: 2

FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 82 percent

FPI's chance of winning the conference: 55 percent

Ohio State had an off week but managed to make headlines with news of J.T. Barrett's suspension. Even without Barrett, the Buckeyes should still win at home against Minnesota (FPI gives them a 96 percent chance to win). The Buckeyes' offense has been a constant topic of conversation, but their defense is also among the nation's elite. Ohio State ranks sixth in defensive efficiency and has held five of its eight opponents to fewer than 14 points.

3. TCU Horned Frogs

Last Week: 5

FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 58 percent

FPI's chance of winning the conference: 40 percent

After defeating West Virginia 40-10 on Thursday, TCU surpassed Baylor as the FPI favorite to win the Big 12. TCU's rise had more to do with its own improvement on defense than Baylor's uncertainty at quarterback. The Horned Frogs posted a defensive efficiency rating of 77 (out of 100) against the Mountaineers and appear to be improving with a number of key players returning from injury. TCU has the advantage of hosting Baylor (54 percent chance to win) on Nov. 27, but first it must get by a gritty Oklahoma State team in the only matchup of undefeated teams this week.

4. Florida Gators

Last Week: 12

FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 21 percent

FPI's chance of winning the conference: 44 percent

After defeating Georgia, Florida's chance of winning the SEC rose to 44 percent, which is more than double the chance of any team from the crowded SEC West. The key is that Florida is a near lock to make it to the SEC championship game, with LSU, Alabama and Ole Miss in the midst of a tight divisional race. Florida has the defense to compete for a playoff spot and a manageable schedule to enable it to enter the conference championship game with one loss.

Not far behind

The six teams below are best positioned to move into the top four, given their team strength, schedule and chance to win or remain unbeaten.

5. Baylor Bears

Last Week: 3

FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 58 percent

FPI's chance of winning the conference: 36 percent

Baylor will be without quarterback Seth Russell for the remainder of the season, but given Art Briles' system, the Bears should remain among the top offenses in the nation. Baylor has a tough schedule ahead (FPI's ninth-toughest remaining schedule), so we will learn quickly if there will be any drop off without Russell. The Playoff Predictor continues to believe it will take extreme circumstances for two teams from the same conference to make the playoff, so Baylor sits at fifth with plenty of opportunity to move up in the next few weeks.

6. LSU Tigers

Last Week: 4

FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 36 percent

FPI's chance of winning the conference: 19 percent

LSU is the only remaining undefeated team in the SEC, but it is projected to play FPI's toughest remaining schedule with three games, including two on the road, against ranked opponents. If the Tigers lose one of those games (88 percent likely), it could be enough to keep them out of the SEC championship game. We will learn a lot about the race for the SEC West after LSU faces Alabama on Saturday. FPI gives the Tigers a 40 percent chance to win in Tuscaloosa.

7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Last Week: 8

FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 28 percent

FPI's chance of winning the conference: NA

After defeating Temple, Notre Dame has a 28 percent chance to win out, best of any one-loss Power 5 team. The Irish were quickly forgotten after their defeat to Clemson in Week 5, but they have the schedule and talent to compete for a playoff spot. FPI projects that the most likely outcome is that three Power 5 conferences will end the season with a zero or one-loss champion, which could open up a spot for a one-loss Notre Dame squad. The Irish cannot look too far ahead, though, with a tricky game at Pittsburgh this weekend.

8. Stanford Cardinal

Last Week: 6

FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 15 percent

FPI's chance of winning the conference: 51 percent

Washington State missed a potential game-winning field goal as time expired to keep Stanford's playoff hopes alive. The Cardinal are still the favorite to win the Pac-12, but given their performance Saturday night, their chances of finishing the season with fewer than two losses remain at 15 percent. After traveling to Colorado on Saturday, the Cardinal finish the regular season with three-straight home games, including a potential playoff eliminator against Notre Dame on Nov. 28.

9. Alabama Crimson Tide

Last Week: 7

FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 19 percent

FPI's chance of winning the conference: 15 percent

Alabama was off last week, preparing for its matchup with LSU. A win against the Tigers would increase Alabama's playoff odds, but the Tide still need help (in the form of an Ole Miss loss) to make the SEC championship game. The Tide will keep themselves in any game this season because of their defense, but going forward, they will need more from its offense to remain in the playoff hunt.

10. Michigan State Spartans

Last Week: 9

FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 53 percent

FPI's chance of winning the conference: 13 percent

Like many top 10 teams, Michigan State was off this past week. Like many expected entering the year, Michigan State's season will likely come down to its matchup with Ohio State on Nov. 21. Michigan State could still win the Big Ten East with a loss to Ohio State, but it would take extreme circumstances. FPI projects that Michigan State has a 22 percent chance to beat the Buckeyes, which is a major reason the Spartans rank so low in the Playoff Predictor.

Best of the rest

The 10 teams below are not out of the playoff discussion, but it would take some improbable wins or some help to move into the top four.

11. Oklahoma Sooners

Last Week: 10

FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 13 percent

FPI's chance of winning the conference: 13 percent

12. Iowa Hawkeyes

Last Week: 11

FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 43 percent

FPI's chance of winning the conference: 22 percent

13. Oklahoma State Cowboys

Last Week: 13

FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 19 percent

FPI's chance of winning the conference: 11 percent

14. Utah Utes

Last Week: 14

FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 7 percent

FPI's chance of winning the conference: 15 percent

15. North Carolina Tar Heels

Last Week: 17

FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 5 percent

FPI's chance of winning the conference: 23 percent

16. Florida State Seminoles

Last Week: 15

FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 4 percent

FPI's chance of winning the conference: 13 percent

17. Houston Cougars

Last Week: 18

FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 65 percent

FPI's chance of winning the conference: 38 percent

18. Memphis Tigers

Last Week: 16

FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 46 percent

FPI's chance of winning the conference: 23 percent

19. Ole Miss Rebels

Last Week: 20

FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 0 percent

FPI's chance of winning the conference: 21 percent

20. Toledo Rockets

Last Week: NR

FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 47 percent

FPI's chance of winning the conference: 29 percent