In case you care (or need a cure for insomnia)...
I thought about this a lot yesterday afternoon and into the night (not alone there I'm sure).
I like to enter every game/season/play hopeful. Obviously we all want our team to do well. The way in which we each approach that varies widely (you think?).
Mathematically, all of our goals, save for going undefeated, are still in front of us. I wouldn't bet the house against us going to Atlanta, but I wouldn't bet the doghouse that we will.
Given our current personnel, and I'm mainly talking about the offense here, what did yesterday's game really tell us? Leading up to this game we heard over and over again just how bad this Miami defense is. Our rushing and passing numbers tend to validate this and/or some combination of their defense not being as bad/our offense not being as bad as advertised. Of course the turnovers and the attendant lack of red zone production killed us.
It will be spun (if it hasn't already) that those turnovers were an aberration, and that by merely eliminating them we will be on course to pick up where we left off (in November) last year. But it has to be asked - if we are to play offense anything beyond the ultra conservative style we saw most of last year, will turnovers be an expected byproduct of "opening it up"?
If Miami's defense is as inferior to most of what we still have ahead of us, what do we have to look forward to? Better defenses mean more pressure on the QB, better coverage/tighter "windows" to throw into, and fewer/smaller holes to run through.
Sounds dismal. What is there to give us hope? More health? Getting Halapio back may make a big difference, I guess we'll see. We might get lucky, but recent history doesn't suggest that we'll advance through the SEC gauntlet unscathed - in fact the recurring injury to Humphries already has an ominous feel to it.
Maybe things will "gel" with more reps. Possibly, but is there any rational reason that at this time of the year we should expect to improve any more than our opponents will?
A return to form by Matt Jones? There may actually be a glimmer of sunshine here since he clearly looked rusty yesterday. But to be fair, despite some outstanding performances late last year he does not yet have a track record as a full time, every down, number one back. He could end up having a breakout season, being a disappointment, or anything in between.
New, dynamic receivers? This is probably the most improved unit on the whole squad, likely due a great deal to Joker's influence. Patton and Dunbar seem to be playing at a higher level. The new guys have yet to make a big impression but rarely do true freshmen, especially so early in the year. Despite the noted marked improvement here, they are still not a group that will keep DCs from good teams up at night. And that's at least in part to...
The elephant in the room. We could have Ike, Reidel, and Jacquez suited up and it wouldn't matter if our QB couldn't get them the ball at the right place and on time. Driskel has some extraordinary physical gifts and he's ours, so we (should, anyway) love him. If you look at them in isolation he mas made some incredible plays - with his feet, with his arm, and yes, even with his head. And it's true, he doesn't always have a clean pocket, doesn't always have his primary receiver getting early separation, but guess what? Neither do any other quarterback, at any level.
In another thread Halley opined that there were only a handful of [B]star[/B] QBs sprinkled throughout CFB and that all of the good teams have one of them. That may or may not be true, but I watch a lot of games and I see a lot of QBs that aren't on All American watch lists, or even necessarily even top 25 teams that do things like make back shoulder throws, hit slants and other timing routes, and throw to the spot before the intended receiver makes his break. Perhaps, in the name of ball security, JD has either been instructed directly not to do these, or is too gun shy to try.
That being said, a junior QB can not throw the ball over the middle late in the red zone when getting rid of it gives you a chance to put points on the board.
And... the coaches. The lynch mobs are forming (or maybe are just now stepping out of the shadows). Is firewillmuschamp.com up yet (good gawd, I hope not)? After yesterday's debacle, what would you do? If there were a better option at QB, don't you think we'd have seen it by now? As much as Tyler Murphy has said to have improved, all reports said that the gulf between he and Driskel in production (gulp!) is huge.
I like a lot of things about CWM. The discipline and toughness he demands is reaping dividends. I know that there are still some bonehead penalties but I think they are trending the right way. Is anyone else amazed that we have not had a single flag thrown on a kickoff or punt return yet? I like that CWM demands accountability.
But given what he has to work with right now I wouldn't want to have to decide what instructions to give our OC. If it were me I [B]think[/B] I would go with a "we've got a killer defense so let's let the offense take more chances and we'll bail them out if we have to" approach. That [B]might[/B] be more fun to watch, although watching your QB throw pick after pick might be more frustrating than watching your tailback gain three yards on 3rd-and-6 time after time.
Optimist's viewpoint: JD will look at game tape from yesterday and learn something. The opening up of the playbook will allow him to grow and flourish, our receivers will become a bigger part of the offense and the running game will benefit, all combining to make our O not only not a liability, but a potent weapon. We'll run the table, crush our opponents in the SEC and NC championship games and all will be right in the world again. All of the best high school players will want to come play here and we will have a dynasty that all others will pale to in comparison.
Pessimist's view: JD and the offense showed yesterday, against one of the weaker defenses on our schedule, that even if they can move the ball at times they can't score points. Against our remaining middle to poor defenses we will see a repeat of yesterday. Against the better ones we'll revert to "playing it safe" Burton will get 80% of the receptions, averaging 6 ypc, and our defense will have to pitch shutouts for us to win. We lose to everyone except Georgia Southern (and possibly Kentucky), the whole coaching staff is fired recruits avoid us like the plague and our roster for the foreseeable future is loaded with legacy walk ons.
What do I really think?: Who knows? I suppose we'll find out what our coaching staff and our roster are made of. The sharpest steel is honed in fire (I think I saw something to that effect in a razor blade commercial once) and the heat won't be in short supply. I think we will end up being somewhere between a 3 and 5 loss team this year. Five losses sounds pretty dramatic, but with key losses due to injuries, and a few balls bouncing the wrong way I'm afraid it could happen.
Bottom line: This is a "show me what you've done lately and entertain me while you're doing it" world now. The sun will rise. The sun will set. Gator fans will complain. Gator fans will complain about other Gator fans complaining. We'll all be distracted by our jobs, families, and other interests, but will all return to enjoy/suffer through our favorite passion.
I'm getting ready to move to a place that will likely mean my days of going to see the Gators play in person may be over (don't feel to sorry for me - it's a place a whole lot of folks think they would like to live). Last week at the Toledo game I was glad I had my sunglasses on - I got teary eyed at "Here come the Gators", during the singing of "We Are The Boys", during the fight song after the game, etc. It's my youngest son's last semester at UF, and it seems like only yesterday that I couldn't wait for him to be "big enough" to take to the games.
At this point I don't know where I fall on the Sunshine pumper/naysayer scale. But I do know that every Saturday in the fall I'll have my hopes riding on the boys in Orange and Blue, and will spend way too much of my other time obsessing about them. And I wouldn't have it any other way. Thanks for being a part of it with me.
I like to enter every game/season/play hopeful. Obviously we all want our team to do well. The way in which we each approach that varies widely (you think?).
Mathematically, all of our goals, save for going undefeated, are still in front of us. I wouldn't bet the house against us going to Atlanta, but I wouldn't bet the doghouse that we will.
Given our current personnel, and I'm mainly talking about the offense here, what did yesterday's game really tell us? Leading up to this game we heard over and over again just how bad this Miami defense is. Our rushing and passing numbers tend to validate this and/or some combination of their defense not being as bad/our offense not being as bad as advertised. Of course the turnovers and the attendant lack of red zone production killed us.
It will be spun (if it hasn't already) that those turnovers were an aberration, and that by merely eliminating them we will be on course to pick up where we left off (in November) last year. But it has to be asked - if we are to play offense anything beyond the ultra conservative style we saw most of last year, will turnovers be an expected byproduct of "opening it up"?
If Miami's defense is as inferior to most of what we still have ahead of us, what do we have to look forward to? Better defenses mean more pressure on the QB, better coverage/tighter "windows" to throw into, and fewer/smaller holes to run through.
Sounds dismal. What is there to give us hope? More health? Getting Halapio back may make a big difference, I guess we'll see. We might get lucky, but recent history doesn't suggest that we'll advance through the SEC gauntlet unscathed - in fact the recurring injury to Humphries already has an ominous feel to it.
Maybe things will "gel" with more reps. Possibly, but is there any rational reason that at this time of the year we should expect to improve any more than our opponents will?
A return to form by Matt Jones? There may actually be a glimmer of sunshine here since he clearly looked rusty yesterday. But to be fair, despite some outstanding performances late last year he does not yet have a track record as a full time, every down, number one back. He could end up having a breakout season, being a disappointment, or anything in between.
New, dynamic receivers? This is probably the most improved unit on the whole squad, likely due a great deal to Joker's influence. Patton and Dunbar seem to be playing at a higher level. The new guys have yet to make a big impression but rarely do true freshmen, especially so early in the year. Despite the noted marked improvement here, they are still not a group that will keep DCs from good teams up at night. And that's at least in part to...
The elephant in the room. We could have Ike, Reidel, and Jacquez suited up and it wouldn't matter if our QB couldn't get them the ball at the right place and on time. Driskel has some extraordinary physical gifts and he's ours, so we (should, anyway) love him. If you look at them in isolation he mas made some incredible plays - with his feet, with his arm, and yes, even with his head. And it's true, he doesn't always have a clean pocket, doesn't always have his primary receiver getting early separation, but guess what? Neither do any other quarterback, at any level.
In another thread Halley opined that there were only a handful of [B]star[/B] QBs sprinkled throughout CFB and that all of the good teams have one of them. That may or may not be true, but I watch a lot of games and I see a lot of QBs that aren't on All American watch lists, or even necessarily even top 25 teams that do things like make back shoulder throws, hit slants and other timing routes, and throw to the spot before the intended receiver makes his break. Perhaps, in the name of ball security, JD has either been instructed directly not to do these, or is too gun shy to try.
That being said, a junior QB can not throw the ball over the middle late in the red zone when getting rid of it gives you a chance to put points on the board.
And... the coaches. The lynch mobs are forming (or maybe are just now stepping out of the shadows). Is firewillmuschamp.com up yet (good gawd, I hope not)? After yesterday's debacle, what would you do? If there were a better option at QB, don't you think we'd have seen it by now? As much as Tyler Murphy has said to have improved, all reports said that the gulf between he and Driskel in production (gulp!) is huge.
I like a lot of things about CWM. The discipline and toughness he demands is reaping dividends. I know that there are still some bonehead penalties but I think they are trending the right way. Is anyone else amazed that we have not had a single flag thrown on a kickoff or punt return yet? I like that CWM demands accountability.
But given what he has to work with right now I wouldn't want to have to decide what instructions to give our OC. If it were me I [B]think[/B] I would go with a "we've got a killer defense so let's let the offense take more chances and we'll bail them out if we have to" approach. That [B]might[/B] be more fun to watch, although watching your QB throw pick after pick might be more frustrating than watching your tailback gain three yards on 3rd-and-6 time after time.
Optimist's viewpoint: JD will look at game tape from yesterday and learn something. The opening up of the playbook will allow him to grow and flourish, our receivers will become a bigger part of the offense and the running game will benefit, all combining to make our O not only not a liability, but a potent weapon. We'll run the table, crush our opponents in the SEC and NC championship games and all will be right in the world again. All of the best high school players will want to come play here and we will have a dynasty that all others will pale to in comparison.
Pessimist's view: JD and the offense showed yesterday, against one of the weaker defenses on our schedule, that even if they can move the ball at times they can't score points. Against our remaining middle to poor defenses we will see a repeat of yesterday. Against the better ones we'll revert to "playing it safe" Burton will get 80% of the receptions, averaging 6 ypc, and our defense will have to pitch shutouts for us to win. We lose to everyone except Georgia Southern (and possibly Kentucky), the whole coaching staff is fired recruits avoid us like the plague and our roster for the foreseeable future is loaded with legacy walk ons.
What do I really think?: Who knows? I suppose we'll find out what our coaching staff and our roster are made of. The sharpest steel is honed in fire (I think I saw something to that effect in a razor blade commercial once) and the heat won't be in short supply. I think we will end up being somewhere between a 3 and 5 loss team this year. Five losses sounds pretty dramatic, but with key losses due to injuries, and a few balls bouncing the wrong way I'm afraid it could happen.
Bottom line: This is a "show me what you've done lately and entertain me while you're doing it" world now. The sun will rise. The sun will set. Gator fans will complain. Gator fans will complain about other Gator fans complaining. We'll all be distracted by our jobs, families, and other interests, but will all return to enjoy/suffer through our favorite passion.
I'm getting ready to move to a place that will likely mean my days of going to see the Gators play in person may be over (don't feel to sorry for me - it's a place a whole lot of folks think they would like to live). Last week at the Toledo game I was glad I had my sunglasses on - I got teary eyed at "Here come the Gators", during the singing of "We Are The Boys", during the fight song after the game, etc. It's my youngest son's last semester at UF, and it seems like only yesterday that I couldn't wait for him to be "big enough" to take to the games.
At this point I don't know where I fall on the Sunshine pumper/naysayer scale. But I do know that every Saturday in the fall I'll have my hopes riding on the boys in Orange and Blue, and will spend way too much of my other time obsessing about them. And I wouldn't have it any other way. Thanks for being a part of it with me.
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